Even with growth faltering in China, Xi Jinping appears imperiously assured that he possesses the right road map to surpass Western rivals.

即便中国经济增长缓慢，习近平似乎仍目空一切地确信，自己拥有超越西方竞争对手的正确路线图。

China’s economy has lurched into a slower gear. Its population is shrinking and aging. Its rival, the United States, has built up a lead in artificial intelligence. Mr. Xi’s pronouncement several years ago that “the East is rising and the West is declining” — that his country was on the way up while American power shrank — now seems premature, if not outright hubristic.

中国经济已陷入低速增长，人口正在减少和老龄化。中国的竞争对手——美国已经在人工智能领域取得了领先地位。几年前，习近平曾宣称“东升西降”，现在看来即使不是狂妄自大，也是为时过早的结论。

The problems have brought growing talk abroad that China could peak before it fully arrives as a superpower. But Mr. Xi seems unbowed in insisting that his policies, featuring extensive party control and state-led industrial investment in new sectors like electric vehicles and semiconductors, can secure China’s rise.

这些问题在国外引发了越来越多的讨论，认为中国可能会在完全成为超级大国之前就达到顶峰。但习近平似乎不为所动，坚持认为自己的政策能够确保中国崛起，这些政策包括党的广泛控制，以及由国家主导的对电动车和半导体等新行业的产业投资。

In a mark of that confidence, his government announced last week that China’s economy was likely to grow about 5 percent this year, much the same pace as last year, according to official statistics. And Mr. Xi emphasized his ambitions for a new phase of industrial growth driven by innovation, acting as if the past year or two of setbacks were an aberration.

为了显示这种信心，中国政府上周宣布，根据官方统计数据，中国经济今年可能增长5%左右，与去年的增速基本持平。习近平还强调了他要进入一个由创新驱动的工业增长新阶段的雄心，似乎过去一两年的挫折只是偶然。

“Faced with a technological revolution and industrial transformation, we must seize the opportunity,” he told delegates at China’s annual legislative meeting in Beijing, who were shown on television ardently applauding him.

“面对新一轮科技革命和产业变革，我们必须抢抓机遇，”他在北京举行的中国一年一度的全国人大会议上对与会代表说，电视画面显示，代表们对他报以热烈的掌声。

He later told another group at the legislative session that China had to “win the battle for key core technologies,” and he told People’s Liberation Army officers to build up “strategic capabilities in emerging areas,” which, the officers indicated, included artificial intelligence, cyberoperations and space technology.

他后来在全国人大会议上对另一个小组表示，中国必须“打好关键核心技术攻坚战”，并告诉中国人民解放军军官要建立“更好推进新兴领域战略能力建设”，军队代表指出，其中包括人工智能、网络作战和空间技术。

Mr. Xi’s bullishness may partly be for show: Chinese leaders are, like politicians anywhere, loath to admit mistakes. And some officials have privately conceded that the economic malaise is tamping down China’s ambitions and swagger, for now at least.

习近平的乐观情绪在一定程度上可能是作秀：与其他地方的政治人物一样，中国领导人也不愿承认错误。一些官员私下承认，经济不景气正在抑制中国的雄心和气势，至少目前如此。

Ryan Hass, the director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution who visited China late last year, said he came away with a sense that “the Chinese are a bit chastened even compared to where they were a year ago. The trajectory of China’s economy overtaking America’s in coming years — that’s been pushed further out on the horizon.”

布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心主任何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)去年年底访问了中国，他说，他离开时有一种感觉，“即使与一年前相比，中国人也没有原来那么自大了。”中国经济在未来几年超越美国的轨迹——已经被推得更远了。”

Even so, Mr. Xi’s determination to stick to his long-term ambitions seems more than a show. “Xi and his team still believe that time and momentum remain on China’s side,” said Mr. Hass, a former director for China at the U.S. National Security Council. “With Xi in power,” he added, it’s hard to envision “any significant re-calibration in the overall trajectory that China’s on.”

即便如此，习近平坚持其长期雄心的决心似乎不仅仅是一场作秀。“习近平和他的团队仍然相信，时与势仍然在中国这一边，”前美国国家安全委员会中国事务主任何瑞恩说。“习近平一直大权在握，”他补充道，很难想象“中国的整体走向会出现任何重大的重新调整”。

Since taking office in 2012, Mr. Xi has tightened the hold of the Communist Party on Chinese society. He has extended state management of the economy, expanded the security apparatus to extinguish potential challenges to party rule, and confronted Washington over technology, Taiwan and other disputes.

自2012年上任以来，习近平加强了共产党对中国社会的控制。他扩大了国家对经济的领导，扩充了安全机构以消除对共产党统治的潜在挑战，并就技术、台湾和其他争端与华盛顿对峙。

To Mr. Xi’s critics, his centralizing, hard-line tendencies are part of China’s problems. He did not cause China’s risky dependence on the property market for growth, and he has worked to end it. But many economists argue he has been too heavy-handed, stifling business and innovation. Critics argue that Mr. Xi has also needlessly antagonized Western governments, prompting them to restrict access to technology and deepen security ties with Washington.

对于习近平的批评者来说，他的集权、强硬倾向是中国问题的一部分。造成中国对房地产市场增长高风险依赖的不是他，而且他一直在努力结束这种情况。但许多经济学家认为，他的手段过于严厉，扼杀了商业和创新。批评者认为，习近平还不必要地激怒了西方政府，促使后者限制技术的获取，并加深与华盛顿的安全关系。

Since last year, the Chinese government moved to ease those strains. It has taken steps aiming to revive confidence among private businesses. Mr. Xi has also sought to dial down tensions with the United States and other countries.

自去年以来，中国政府开始采取行动缓解这些压力。它采取了旨在重振民营企业信心的措施。习近平还寻求缓和与美国及其他国家的紧张关系。

Such moderating gestures point to what Mr. Xi has described as the “tactical flexibility” he expects of Chinese officials in difficult times. But in Mr. Xi’s telling, even as officials make easing steps, they must stick to his long-term objectives. He and his loyal subordinates have been defending his policies in speeches and editorials, suggesting that the doubters are shortsighted. Chinese officials and scholars have also stepped up denunciations of Western analysts who have forecast that China faces an era of decline.

按照习近平所说的，他期望中国官员在困难时期能有“策略的灵活性”，上述温和姿态便体现出了这一点。但按照习近平的说法，即使官员们采取宽松措施，他们也必须坚持他的长期目标。他与其忠诚的下属一直在讲话和社论中捍卫自己的政策，暗示怀疑者目光短浅。中国官员和学者也加大了对西方分析人士的谴责力度，后者预测中国面临着一个衰落的时代。

Mr. Xi has stressed that economic and security priorities must work hand in hand even as China grapples with slower growth. Mr. Xi is also betting that investing in manufacturing and technology can deliver new “high quality” growth by expanding industries such as new clean energy and electric vehicles.

习近平强调，经济和安全优先事项必须齐头并进，尽管中国努力应对增长放缓。习近平还认为，对制造业和技术的投资可以通过扩张新型清洁能源和电动汽车等产业来实现新的“高质量”增长。

The Chinese leadership’s “mantra seems to be that ‘We’re not going to grow as fast as we used to, but we’re going to gain more leverage over trade partners by controlling critical parts of the global economy,’” said Michael Beckley, an associate professor at Tufts University, who has argued that China is a “peaking power,” meaning a country whose economic ascent has slowed but not yet stopped.

中国领导层的“信条似乎是‘我们的增长速度不会像以前那样快，但我们将通过控制全球经济的关键部分来获得对贸易伙伴的更大影响力’”，塔夫茨大学助理教授迈克尔·贝克利说。他提出中国是一个“见顶大国”(peaking power)，指的是一个经济增长放缓但尚未停止的国家。

Some economists argue that China’s advances in these select industries will not be enough to make up for the drag caused by a fall in consumer confidence, and by developers and local governments straining under debt. China’s broader fortunes will heavily rest on whether Mr. Xi’s wager on technology can pay off.

一些经济学家认为，对于消费者信心下降、开发商和地方政府负债累累造成的拖累，中国在这些特定行业的进步不足以对其作出弥补。中国更广泛的命运将在很大程度上取决于习近平对技术的押注能否获得回报。

“They see technology as the solution to every problem they’re facing — economic, environmental, demographic, social,” said Nadège Rolland, a researcher at the National Bureau of Asian Research who studies China’s strategic thinking. “If they cannot make sufficient advances in this domain, it’s going to be very difficult for them.”

“他们将技术视为他们面临的每一个问题的解决方案——经济、环境、人口、社会，”美国国家亚洲研究局研究中国战略思维的研究员纳德格·罗兰说。“如果他们不能在这个领域取得足够的进展，对他们来说会非常困难。”

Scholars in China and abroad who hope the country might take a more liberal path sometimes look to history for examples of when party leaders made bold changes to defuse domestic and international tensions.

希望中国走上更加自由主义道路的国内外学者有时会以史为鉴，寻找党的领导人为化解国内和国际紧张局势而进行大胆变革的例子。

The last time that China was caught in such a painful confluence was after the June 4, 1989, crackdown on pro-democracy protesters. The bloodshed prompted Western countries to impose sanctions on China, which deepened the economic shock. Within several years, however, Deng Xiaoping, then China’s leader, sought to repair relations with Washington and other capitals and unleashed market changes that revived growth and lured back Western investors.

中国上一次陷入如此痛苦的交汇是在1989年6月4日镇压民主抗议者之后。流血事件促使西方国家对中国实施制裁，加深了经济冲击。然而，几年之内，时任中国领导人的邓小平寻求修复与华盛顿和其他国家的关系，带来了市场改革，重振经济增长并吸引西方投资者回归。

Now, though, China faces much more entrenched antagonism from other major powers, Zhu Feng, a prominent foreign policy scholar at Nanjing University in east China, said in an interview. For example, China’s surging exports of electric cars — which have benefited from extensive government subsidies — could revive trade tensions, as the United States, Japan and Europe fear losing jobs and industrial muscle.

不过，中国南京大学著名外交政策学者朱锋在接受采访时表示，现在中国面临着来自其他大国更加根深蒂固的敌意。例如，由于美国、日本和欧洲担心失去就业机会和工业实力，中国电动汽车出口激增——受益于大量政府补贴——可能会再次加剧贸易紧张局势。

The economic and diplomatic strains are “posing the gravest challenge to China” in decades, Professor Zhu said.

朱教授表示，经济和外交压力“这个对中国提出了改革开放以来最严峻的挑战”。

Still, Chinese leaders seem to believe that, whatever their problems, their Western rivals face worsening ones that will ultimately humble and fracture them.

尽管如此，中国领导人似乎仍然相信，无论他们面临什么问题，他们的西方竞争对手面临的问题都会加剧，最终促使它们被击败、被分裂。

Recent reports from institutes under China’s ruling party, military and state security ministry point to the rancorous polarization in the United States ahead of the next election. Regardless of who wins, Chinese analysts argue, American power is likely to remain troubled by political dysfunction.

中国执政党、军队和国家安全部下属机构的最新报告指出，美国在下次选举之前将陷入严重的两极分化。中国的分析人士认为，无论谁获胜，美国的实力都可能继续受到政治机制失灵的困扰。

Chinese scholars have also focused on fault lines in the Western bloc over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Beijing’s relations with the United States and European governments were badly strained over Mr. Xi’s partnership with President Vladimir V. Putin. But as the war stretches into its third year, the burden of supporting Ukraine is deepening rifts and “fatigue” in the United States and Europe.

中国学者还关注西方集团因俄罗斯在乌克兰发动的战争而产生的分歧。由于习近平与俄罗斯总统普京的伙伴关系，北京与美国和欧洲政府的关系受到严重困扰。但随着战争进入第三个年头，支持乌克兰的负担正在加深美国和欧洲的裂痕和“疲劳”。

“U.S. foreign intervention cannot handle everything it is trying to juggle,” Chen Xiangyang, a researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing, which is under the state security ministry, wrote last year. “China can exploit the contradictions and leverage them to its own advantage.”

“美国对外干涉顾此失彼、难再独霸，”国家安全部下属、位于北京的中国现代国际关系研究院研究员陈向阳去年写道，“中国可以利用矛盾、借力打力。”